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WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

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WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

Postby  prv_limb » Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:19 pm

Now that the “War is Coming” has ended and with it the Prediction Contest, it is time to evaluate what went well and what could be improved. We ask you guys for your opinion on the prediction contest so we can make future contests better. So if you have any suggestions feel free to post them, we want to improve to provide a better experience in the future if we happen to run another contest.

For example:
  • What do you think about the amount of time provided by us for you to place bets? We tried to give you at least 24 hours.
  • What do you think about the variety of bets?
  • What do you think about the provided odds, too high/low?
Again, feel free to post any suggestions and comments you might have.
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Re: WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

Postby  Tr1S » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:01 am

With all the respect to your work guys, I think there are still few things, which might be improved next time. First of all, giving more time to the players for placing their bets. Or at least say, when exactly will next round start and when it will end. For example I missed the first round, just because there was nothing about it.
Secondly, the variety of the bets was really nice, but sometimes a bit too much luck-based. I really like some of the bets - for example the gold-difference in El_dorado really isn't much luck-based, when you guess correctly the strategy of the players you are pretty safe. For me, the one when we were supposed to guess how many times will SY make a teamwall in a match was really unfair. On WiC_pack, it's possible to have a really wide range of maps, on some you'll make a teamwall in 90% of games and on other it's just impossible. Same as on Nomad, LN - that was really luck based bet, it could go easily anyway and skill didn't help there at all.
Another bet which I don't like was 13. (Closed) How many teams of Round Robin Group 1 (SY, Nadyas Boys, VietNamStrategy) will win their match? in Week 7. I won this one, because I predicted wrong 2 matches - SY and VNS. If somebody predicted that SY will win and VNS aswell, he did better than I did, but I won this one.. A bit unfair IMO.
Last one - sometimes there were really high odds. For example in week 8, bet 6c - way too high for 1v1. It's really unlikely for both players to go very aggresive grush with bigger armies (so there's possibility that after fight, one player will have more than 10 galleys, while other 0). In imperial big fight for water is very unlikely too, so odds in this one should be different, like this IMO 6a - 4.5, 6b 4.5, 6c 1.6.

Those are just few things which came to my mind. Big thank for this event one more time.
Edit : One more thing - would be nice to have the possibility to send our bets for the last round directly to you, instead of posting them for all. You can just copy the bets of the person behind you and this way make sure to end better than him.

Last thing -I think there were actually more players betting in streams than betting here. Next time, try to make only one competition instead of one on stream, second here.
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Re: WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

Postby  Millo » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:34 am

I think the bets were fine, the odds were also preety fine, i have to agree on the time-lapse for betting, but since the PC itself got anounced on a very short period since it was probably planned from the very beggining, i guess we can´t really complain but would prolly try to fix that.

I disagree on the PM bets, though it could work, in "strategy" betting matters you somehow need to know what your opponents are betting and most likely adapt to that, either way beeing first wouldn´t be an advantage at all, i was planning to bet what Tr1s betted on last round to "secure" first place, but then Kymu betted something totally different and ended up getting more gold than me on last round, if i would copy Tr1s bet i wouldn´t been able to win and probably drop to third place(since both kymu and tr1s had stacked gold for previous rounds and actually won like 600 each), whitch gave the last matches a great importance since any of us could have won(i even editted the gold poundmap bet, i would of win that one 11).

You could also add participants a bigger role, like for example, top 3 of the week could make 3 viable questions with their respective odds and stuff.

The biggest problem imo, was having stacked gold, i had in the very early stages almost my whole gold stucked for 2 weeks, they ended up giving me a lot of gold but prohibiting me for making higher bets on the other weeks, in wich i actually did very good aswell but with low amount of it, when something like this happens next time i would recommend to limit the max betts a lil bit more, if Tr1s wouldn´t have missed so much on that specific week he would have been unreachable.

I also want to point out that i didn´t simply throw my bets, i made the maths looked for each map had like 3 paralel windows opened to compare top competitors bets/ amount of gold and other stuff, compared previous results, for example there was a round where a question was "what will the longer DM game last" that was one of the greatest, all teams on that round that were facing each other had 1 top DM team and 1 fully RM-players team and i checked every single match timing from SY-VNS and cant remember what other team and none of them past 15 mins mark, cant clearly remember how it was, i know i betted for the most secure one, and ended up failing, lol what can i say, i felt trapped and involved, much excitement and fun.

Overall it was amazing, im like a freek when it comes to this tournaments, loved watching, commentating on twitch, loved playing the prediction contest, and all thanks to your work guys, so thanks again.
-It´s not What You Push, It´s What Pushes You. Shine On You Crazy Diamond!-
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Re: WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

Postby  Aurelius » Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:25 am

To me it's obvious that the biggest problem is the platform.

I bet you'd see a MUCH higher participation rate if it was a nice homepage setup where you login, all available bets are listed and how much gold you have, the leaderboards, and so on.

But... I realize it's a lot of work to create that. I was disappointed right from the start because I check these forums daily and I completely failed at keeping track of what was happening. It should be fun, not a chore.
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Re: WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

Postby  Carlos Ferdinand » Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:01 am

I think we needed less of what you can classify as safe bets or we need an increase in return for unsafe bets. This would decrease the chances of early leaders running away with the prediction contest which is great. And I know you are doing the best you can, but try to avoid all confusion regarding whether bets can be reinvested.

Thanks for this contest, I had fun and if I was more careful could easily have landed in a money spot. :P
No_Re_I_Go_Eat_ says:
if u get 2k i break up with lavie

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Re: WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

Postby  teutonic_tanks » Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:33 am

  26 Mar 2015, 05:01 GMT » Carlos Ferdinand wrote:
I think we needed less of what you can classify as safe bets or we need an increase in return for unsafe bets. This would decrease the chances of early leaders running away with the prediction contest which is great. And I know you are doing the best you can, but try to avoid all confusion regarding whether bets can be reinvested.

Thanks for this contest, I had fun and if I was more careful could easily have landed in a money spot. :P


yeah once you were down to 200 gold or less it was already kinda impossible to comeback. The mainproblem was that some games were delayed so hard (for example KGB vs PoZ), so u could just use a small part of your gold for several bets.

For me it was also hard to follow when which game is happening and to bet on the right time, it would be great if you could add the start time for every in the bets involved game.

But in general really nice prediction contest and thx that u made it happen.
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Re: WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

Postby  prv_limb » Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:17 pm

Thank you guys for your feedback, it is very useful.

But I would like to add that a lot of things are out of our control, like when teams schedule or if they postpone the matches and things like that. We do our best to work around the scheduled times for some games. That why sometimes we were a bit late posting the bets, because we were surprised they scheduled a match at a certain time, if that makes sense.

About the "freezing" of the bets, we kind of were in two minds whether to void all bets or only void the bets for L_Clan_ games. We decided that voiding 4 out of 10 bets is a lot, so we opted for only voiding the ones directly related to L_Clan_. Which in hindsight may not have been the best decision.
To be honest I was kind of happy when all games were played and we no longer had any open/frozen bets.

One last thing I would like to know: When do you think is the best time to upload the bets?
Personally I would think that it would be on a Friday evening (GMT) just before the weekend, but it seemed that the bets uploaded on Monday or Tuesday were generally "more" popular.
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Re: WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

Postby  Tr1S » Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:01 pm

Tbh, I don't think it is important. When players have enough time to bet, they will bet. Not sure if time of posting the bets has any influence. But maybe I'm just not the right person to answer this, because I've been checking aoczone - prediction contest at least 5 times/day in the last days...
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Re: WiC Prediction Contest - Evaluation

Postby  scandisk » Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:19 pm

Actually I was not aware of betting when it was started , as I was busy. A spam mail would be enough so that more participants can show up .
Over all it was very awesome event , as this event was organised very first time . Then u ( with staff ) better know what improvement is needed as u guyz worked a lot on this .
I expect some more betting points which are based on rare events, like BAcT's king :P ... and more fun..

thankuu for wonderful event..
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