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Expert Team Analysis

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Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  Gango » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:23 pm

Spaden 1k9 WOW :lol: :lol:
Posts: 9
Joined: Jul 06, 2014

Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  SethGecko » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:56 pm

  07 Sep 2017, 10:38 GMT » poZ_edie wrote:
@Seth bout Austria, you mentioned 2-3 times their score vs VNS B (1-3), but lierey played only the game they won(he didnt show up for the other games) and LB10 was playing on laptop 16+ style, im sure they will do way better than they did vs Vietnam B :)

Thanks, edie, good point!
This also increases chances for Germany A a bit, which is nice. :)

  07 Sep 2017, 15:23 GMT » Gango wrote:
Spaden 1k9 WOW :lol: :lol:

In case you wonder, I have decided to count players with the exact score of 2000 as 1.9k to honor 2k players who are currently active.
Posts: 44
Joined: May 28, 2014

Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  SethGecko » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:47 am

GL Knockout Stage Predictions (China Frantic vs Brazil B)

    (china) China Frantic vs (brazil) Brazil B

    (china) China Frantic (1v1: 2298 | TG: 2057)
      Tim + vivi (SOBIGDIAO_) + happyhappy (CL_) + Whoop/geoffrey

      Home maps:
        Islands (vs Finland A + Vietnam A + Brazil A)
        Nomad (vs Brazil A)
        Migration (vs Canada A)
      Defeated on:
        Ghost Lake (2x Brazil A)
        Nomad (Brazil A)
        Chaos Pit (Canada A)
        Arabia (Finland A)
        Seize the Hump (Finland A)
        Golden Hill (Finland A)
        Team Acropolis (Finland A)
        Shallow Web (Brazil A)
        Islands (Brazil A)
      Notable victories:
        Arabia (vs Canada A + 2x Brazil A + Vietnam A)
        Islands (vs Brazil A + Finland A + Vietnam A)
        Land Nomad (vs Finland A + Brazil A)
        Hideout (vs Canada A + Brazil A)
        Black Forest (vs Finland A)
        Migration (vs Canada A)
        Bedouins (vs Vietnam A)
        Golden Hill (vs Brazil A)
    (brazil) Brazil B (1v1: 2213 | TG: 2065)
      dogao + miguel + St4rk + FeAge

      Home maps:
      Defeated on:
        Chaos Pit (Spain A)
        Bedouins (Vietnam A)
        Ghost Lake (USA A)
        Seize the Hump (Ukraine A)
        Migration (Finland A)
        Black Forest (Finland A)
        Islands (Finland A)
        Fortress (Finland A)
      Notable victories:
        Arabia (vs Argentina A + Vietnam A + Brazil A + Finland A)
        Islands (vs Argentina A + Vietnam A)
        Decentring (vs Argentina A)
        Golden Crater (vs Vietnam A)
        Shallow Web (vs Brazil A)
        Golden Hill (vs Brazil A)
        Ghost Lake (vs Brazil A)
        Land Nomad (vs Finland A)
        Microphone (vs Finland A)
      Game 1: Arabia (brazil)
      Game 2: Migration (china)
      Game 3: Land Nomad (china) / (brazil)
      Game 4: Home map (china)
      Game 5: Home map (brazil)
      Game 6: Microphone (china) / (brazil)
      Game 7: Team Acropolis (china) / (brazil)
    Quick comparison:
      - China Frantic is ahead in terms of average 1v1 rating. Nevertheless, both teams have an average 1v1 rating of more than 2.2k, which is amazing.
      - the teams' TG ratings are very close (2057 to 2065) which indicates equal strength.
      - both teams have played at least some practice games in the last couple of days.
    Brazil A vs China Frantic was a very entertaining series. If you haven't watched it yet, you should. It finished in a heartbeat final game. I'm confident we will see another great series today.

    G1: It all starts with Arabia one last time. I'm sure you have a smile on your face when you compare the teams Notable victories sections above. While Brazil B is actually unbeaten on Arabia so far, the only opponent which managed to defeat China Frantic on this map was grand finalist Finland A. Interestingly, the only teams to defeat Brazil A on Arabia were Brazil B and China Frantic (the latter even twice!). Statistically, Brazil B is the favorite on this map because, unlike China Frantic, they were able to beat Finland A on it. I'm sure it's going to be a close game though.
    G2: China Frantic is the favorite on the second map, Migration. Reason: they once chose this map as home map against Canada A and were able to beat them on it. Brazil B on the other hand was defeated by Finland A on Migration. Nevertheless, this game might go either way since Brazil B likes to play Islands as home map, and Migration undeniably has an important water component.
    G3: Game 3, played on Land Nomad, does not have a favorite since both teams have a clean record on this map. Both teams were able to defeat Finland A on it. China Frantic also beat Brazil A on this map.
    G4/5: Now it's getting really interesting. Actually, both teams have chosen Islands as home map most of the times - Brazil B never picked another map. Right after Arabia, it's the most successful map - for both teams! A lot of people were wondering why China Frantic would go for Islands as their home map against Brazil A in the last match. The reasons are simple: they like to play Islands, they are good on it, and they were able to beat Brazil A on Islands in the group stage already.
    In this match though, it's more difficult. Both teams have lost one game on Islands (China Frantic against Brazil A, Brazil B against Finland A). I think Brazil B will pick Islands one more time, since they have not picked another map so far. China Frantic will probably choose another map this time. Other home map picks for China Frantic so far include Migration, which is not possible because it is a set map in this series, Nomad on which they were defeated by Brazil A, and Fortress which they picked in an not very important match. I'm curious as to what they will choose.
    G6: The sixth map will be Microphone. China Frantic has not played this map in an important match until now. Brazil B already has some experience on it since they were able to win on Microphone against Finland A. Therefore, Brazil B might have a small advantage.
    G7: On the last map, Team Acropolis, it is the other way round. China Frantic has a more relevant experience on this map since they have already played against Finland A on this map. Small difference: Finland A was able to beat China Frantic.

    All in all, this series is likely to become another long and entertaining series. Brazil B might have the edge because they already almost qualified for the Grand Final, and because they were able to crush Brazil A 4:0, while China Frantic struggled to win against them.

    Expected Result: 3:4 (brazil)

Side note: if you missed it, yesterday I released the SL Knockout Stage Predictions (Ro16).
Posts: 44
Joined: May 28, 2014

Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  SethGecko » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:50 pm

SL Knockout Stage Predictions (Quarter Finals)

In the notable players section, only those players are shown with their current rating who have played in an important tournament game so far.

    (china) China EMA (1v1: 2153 | TG: 1902) vs (vietnam) Vietnam B (1v1: 2000 | TG: 1946)

    China EMA's key player is IamOK. He is the only one who has reached 2.3k at one point in time and is also the only player to consistently play in all their tournament matches. Their combined TG rating is rather low compared to their individual strength. China EMA has struggled to win against Mexico B in the round of 16 (3:2). Their strength varies with the players they send into battle.
    Vietnam B on the other hand consists of players who have all reached 2k ratings at one point in time, but are not playing actively on the 1v1 ladder at the moment (they mostly decayed to exactly 2000 rating which I count as 1.9k in the notable players section). Vietnam B successfully beat Germany A (3:1) and B (3:2) on their way to the quarter finals. From now on I will call them Germany's nemesis. :geek:

    Actually, we see two Gold League participants clash in this quarter final. Depending on which players are going to play, this match might go either way. If China EMA uses their best line-up, they will be the favorite.

    Notable players:
      2.2k: (china) StrayDog
      2.1k: (china) IamOK
      2k: (china) Noto + (china) xiaohai + (china) sn + (china) Ola (IamMuzki, Work0fart, GEM__)

      1.9k: (vietnam) SeOul + (vietnam) BadBoy + (vietnam) RollsRoyce + (vietnam) Nhok
    Expected Result: 3:2 (china)

    (brazil) Brazil C (1v1: 2014 | TG: 2001) vs (japan) Japan A (1v1: 2016 | TG: 1866)

    Brazil C's best players are Mahori and goodfella. Mahori once reached 2.2k on the 1v1 ladder, but was not very active in the last couple of weeks. goodfella is one of the best players on TG ladder, having reached 2.1k there. They had a hard time against Vietnam C in the round of 16 (3:2), but managed to qualify for the Gold League beforehand.
    Japan A's key player is probably Chocobo who almost reached 2.2k at some point in time. Japan A defeated United States A in the round of 16 in a long match (3:2) and consistently uses the same line-up even though they have lots of players in their roster.

    Actually, Brazil C and Japan A have already played against each other. Brazil C qualified for the Gold League by eliminating Japan A 3:2 in the Qualification stage back then! Apparently, they agreed to play 4v4 this time which might also favor Brazil C who has more high rated players in their roster.

    Notable players:
      2k: (brazil) Mahori + (brazil) goodfella
      1.9k: (brazil) pink_floyd + (brazil) scrath
      1.8k: (brazil) ReFen + (brazil) Josepreto

      2k: (japan) Chocobo + (japan) chart
      1.8k: (japan) Bustos43
      1.7k: (japan) may
    Expected Result: 3:2 (brazil)

    (czech) Czech Republic A (1v1: 2111 | TG: 2027) vs (sweden) Sweden A (1v1: 1901 | TG: 1922)

    In the initial prediction of this thread, I expected either China EMA or Czech Republic A to win the Silver League. Taking into account the teams' recent performances, I begin to favor Czech Republic A. For the first time ever (iirc), Janik has reached 2.3k on the 1v1 ladder and therefore entered the TOP 50 of highest rated players which is an amazing achievement. His high rated teammates managed to qualify for the Quarter finals even without him (vs Russia A 3:1). They qualified for the Gold League against Quarter finalist Brazil C (4:0!) and managed to take games from top teams like China SY and Argentina A.
    Sweden A on the other hand is a team of strong players as well. Their key player Spaden has reached 2.1k at some point in time and signed up for upcoming 1v1 tournaments as well. Sweden A beat Gold League participant Chile B in their last match (3:2) and almost qualified for the Gold League themselves (2:3 against Austria A).

    All in all, Sweden A has a decent team but Czech Republic A is on another level.

    Notable players:
      2.3k: (czech) Janik
      2k: (czech) Skull + (czech) Error (Fallowyourmind)
      1.9k: (czech) Mango + (czech) Ovenka
      1.8k: (czech) ExiT

      1.9k: (sweden) Spaden + (sweden) Slaktarnn
      1.8k: (sweden) BuLLeT + (sweden) DarklyWise
    Expected Result: 3:1 (czech)

    (austria) Austria A (1v1: 2138 | TG: 1935) vs (france) France A (1v1: 2077 | TG: 1879)

    Austria A's best player is youngster Liereyy. Recently, there has been a poll on aoczone about who is going to be the next player to achieve an incredible rating of 2.5k. Most people voted for Euro Cup finalist Liereyy. And he is not wasting any time on achieving this goal, already peaking at 2479 at the moment. Austria A managed to qualify for the Gold League against Sweden A in an intense match (3:2), but was not very successful against the likes of Brazil A and China Frantic. In the Silver League, Austria A has played dominantly so far and crushed Hong Kong A and even the strong Ukraine A 3:0.
    France A's best player is the Master of Arena, edie. Recently, he dropped from 2.4k to 2.2k rating, playing TheViper and DauT beneath others. France A almost qualified for the Gold League against United States A (2:3) and defeated Spain A convincingly (3:1) on their way to the Quarter finals. Actually, beating Spain A who have top expert TaToH and legend ralber in their team is quite some achievement.

    Players like Ronaldo or Messi often make the difference in football matches. For Austria A, this probably will be Liereyy.

    Notable players:
      2.4k: (austria) Liereyy
      1.9k: (austria) LB10 + (austria) Lavie_Head (Candy_Pizza)
      1.7k: (austria) teutonic_tanks

      2.2k: (france) edie
      1.9k: (france) cebdos + (france) VM + (france) HaNiI3aL + (france) Sitaux
      1.8k: (france) Eques4
    Expected Result: 3:2 (austria)
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Joined: May 28, 2014

Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  Tarsiz » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:08 pm

Another nice read, thanks for the detailed summary!

Interesting fact about last round: Japan A and France A, two teams which failed to qualify for the Gold League phase of the competition, actually knocked out two teams which did qualify (respectively the USA and Spain A). I guess this highlights that all these teams are very close in level and everything can happen!

Of course, my favorite match for this round will be Austria against France. :geek:

During the games versus Spain, I was thoroughly impressed by _VM_ play in both the Islands and the Arena games. In Islands, he was able to go neck and neck against TaToH - probably one of the best water players at the moment - during a big part of the game while the rest of the french team did struggle on that map.

During scheduling Edie offered to play 4v4, which, I think, would benefit France since Austria #4 is a bit behind the rest of the otherwise super strong line-up in terms of Elo and 4v4 would reduce the impact of the "Liereyy factor". However, when Austria beat Sweden during their last match of qualifications for the Gold League they did play 4v4 against a team "supposedly" stronger on that format and performed really well so it might not make a big difference in the end.

Regarding the maps:

Arabia: Edie & VM are Arena experts, while Sitaux & Cebdos are mostly Arabia players. Cebdos and Hani did very well during the Arabia game against Spain. On the other hand, it's probably one of Liereyy's strongest maps and LB10 has also reached a 2k rating by playing a mix of Arena and Arabia. I would expect Austria to take this one but it could go either way (especially if played on 4v4).

Home maps: France will most likely pick Arena while Austria should pick Migration (their HM in all matches except versus Ukraine) or Decentering. Considering France lost pretty badly to Spain on water and Austria has a very strong record on Migration I expect them to win their HM fairly convincingly. The Arena game is likely to be a very long and tough game, but I think France will pull through and take a win on their HM.

Seize the Hump is a very chaotic map and the random civilizations makes it very interesting in the sense that with "imbalanced" teams, the "power player" does not necessarily get a "power civ". Hard to predict but I really hope we see some crazy action on that map! :D

Twin Puddles being a fairly open Arabia-style map, I think Austria should have a small edge if the match goes the distance.

One thing is for sure, we're in for a treat and I hope to see amazing games from these awesome teams. :oops:
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Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  bulletchen » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:41 pm

Sorry but you're wrong about brazil C... best player is clearly Jose!
Posts: 839
Joined: Sep 22, 2013
Age: 25
 1834 (50%)

Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  SethGecko » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:43 pm

@Tarsiz: Nice in-depth analysis you did there, enjoyed reading it!

@bulletchen: I guess you meant best-looking? ;)

[Show] Spoiler: Jose
Posts: 44
Joined: May 28, 2014

Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  bulletchen » Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:41 pm

Believe me jose plays like 3k5 in tournaments its crazy! the only things thats in his way for reaching 2k5 is his goat.
Posts: 839
Joined: Sep 22, 2013
Age: 25
 1834 (50%)

Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  smarthy_ » Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:13 pm

  16 Sep 2017, 15:41 GMT » bulletchen wrote:
Believe me jose plays like 3k5 in tournaments its crazy! the only things thats in his way for reaching 2k5 is his goat.

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Location: Minneapolis
Age: 25

Re: Expert Team Analysis

Postby  Chessfreak_ » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:42 am

I really enjoyed your analysis! I would love to read your thoughts on other tournaments as well. Keep them coming :!:
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