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[KotD] Clash of the Civilizations (Stats)

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[KotD] Clash of the Civilizations (Stats)

Postby  Rorarimbo » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:05 pm

The King of the Desert tournament will provide us with great fun and will determine who is the best Arabia player in the moment. But it also has another purpose. We are often wondering how the new changes affect the game? What is the new balance and the new meta? I think despite it is a bit early for established meta the way it is in standard AoC we will see some new trends as there were with the indians earlier this year. Collecting the results from all the games of KotD we will try to answer which civilization is the King of the Desert. This will be a race between the civs not between the players.

There are 4 categories in witch the civs will be ranked that will also be contributing to the final results.

I. Most wanted civilization. Each time a civ is selected by a player in his civilization pool it well get 1 point in this category and 1 point in the overall standings.
II.Most popular civilization. Each time a civ is played it will get 1 point in this category and 1 point in the overall standings.
III. Strongest civilization. Each time a civ wins a game it will get 1 point in this category and 1 point in the overall standings.
IV. Most feared civilization. Each time a civ is banned it will get 1 point in this category and 2 points in the overall standings.
The overall standings for The Best civilization in the tournament will be determined by the sum of the points as listed above.

RESULTS

All the results I am going to refer plus much more You can see in this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing The end product as a collective work done by philipp94831 who created a tool to extract information from the recored games and gathered alot of interesting stats. He also prepared very interesting win probabolity rating and soccer table. misafeco added Civ ELO from the results of the games. And myself preparing the standings (overall and in different categories) as well as draft preference rating.

I. KotD Overall Standings
1 Aztecs 68
2 Indians 68
3 Mayans 67
4 Berbers 67
5 Incas 59
6 Malians 59
7 Burmese 58
8 Magyars 55
9 Ethiopians 55
10 Malay 52
11 Huns 46
12 Celts 28
13 Britons 23
14 Mongols 17
15 Vikings 11
16 Italians 10
17 Viatnamese 10
18 Franks 9
19 Byzantines 8
20 Spanish 8
21 Japanese 7
22 Chinese 6
22 Goths 6
24 Koreans 5
25 Portuguese 2
26 Slavs 1
26 Turks 1
Tie breakers: 1) number of wins; 2) number of bans; 3) games played

I.1 Most Wanted Civilization (Most times selected in civ draft)
1 Indians 28
2 Ethiopians 26
3 Magyars 26
4 Berbers 25
5 Mayans 23
6 Burmese 23
7 Aztecs 22
8 Malians 21
9 Malay 21
10 Huns 20
11 Incas 19
12 Celts 12
13 Britons 11
14 Mongols 7
15 Vikings 6
15 Italians 6
17 Viatnamese 5
18 Franks 3
18 Japanese 3
20 Spanish 3
20 Chinese 3
20 Goths 3
20 Koreans 3
24 Byzantines 2
25 Slavs 1
25 Turks 1
Tie breaker: number of bans

I.2 Most Popular Civilization (Most number of games played)
1 Berbers 24
2 Indians 23
3 Mayans 21
4 Aztecs 21
5 Malay 21
6 Magyars 20
7 Malians 18
8 Ethiopians 18
9 Incas 16
10 Burmese 15
11 Huns 14
12 Celts 8
13 Britons 7
14 Mongols 5
15 Viatnamese 5
16 Vikings 4
17 Italians 4
18 Spanish 3
19 Franks 2
20 Japanese 2
21 Chinese 2
21 Goths 2
23 Byzantines 2
24 Koreans 1
Tie breaker: draft selections

I.3 Strongest Civilization (Most number of wins)
1 Aztecs 15
2 Indians 13
3 Mayans 11
4 Huns 10
5 Burmese 10
6 Incas 10
7 Malians 10
8 Berbers 10
9 Magyars 7
10 Malay 6
11 Britons 5
12 Ethiopians 5
13 Celts 4
14 Mongols 3
15 Franks 2
15 Byzantines 2
17 Spanish 2
18 Koreans 1
19 Chinese 1
19 Goths 1
21 Vikings 1
Tie breaker: least number of games

I.4 Most Feared Civilization (Most number of bans)
1 Incas 7
2 Mayans 6
3 Aztecs 5
4 Burmese 5
4 Malians 5
6 Berbers 4
7 Ethiopians 3
8 Indians 2
9 Malay 2
10 Celts 2
11 Huns 1
12 Magyars 1
13 Mongols 1
14 Franks 1
14 Byzantines 1
16 Japanese 1
16 Portuguese 1
Tie breaker:most number of wins

II.Win Probability Rating
1 Aztecs 9.00%
2 Indians 8.18%
3 Mayans 7.50%
4 Berbers 7.14%
5 Huns 6.33%
6 Burmese 6.01%
7 Incas 5.74%
8 Malians 5.52%
9 Malay 5.08%
10 Magyars 4.73%
11 Britons 4.44%
12 Byzantines 3.98%
13 Ethiopians 3.74%
14 Mongols 3.03%
15 Celts 2.98%
16 Spanish 2.96%
17 Franks 2.78%
18 Koreans 2.35%
19 Chinese 1.78%
20 Vikings 1.67%
21 Goths 1.59%
22 Vietnamese 1.27%
23 Italians 1.16%
24 Japanese 1.05%

III. Civilization ELO
1 Aztecs 1702
2 Huns 1673
3 Burmese 1649
4 Incas 1641
5 Britons 1639
6 Indians 1636
7 Byzantines 1631
8 Franks 1629
9 Mongols 1624
10 Spanish 1614
11 Mayans 1610
12 Celts 1608
13 Chinese 1601
14 Goths 1599
15 Malians 1587
16 Japanese 1571
17 Vikings 1570
18 Berbers 1550
19 Magyars 1542
20 Italians 1540
21 Vietnamese 1532
22 Ethiopians 1518
23 Malay 1502
Only 1 game: Koreans 1618; Not played: Teutons, Persians, Turks, Saracens, Slavs, Khmer, Portuguese.

Both of the above models consider the civ strenght in relation the the strenght of thopposition they meet. I have to agree that the classic ELO would work better if we had all civilizations involved as of now fairly strong civs are towards the bottom of the ranking having played with only strong competition. For reference You cab see below the actual Win ration.

IV Win Ratio
1 Aztecs 71.43% 15/6
2 Huns 71.43% 10/4
3 Britons 71.43% 5/2
4 Burmese 66.67% 10/5
5 Spanish 66.67% 2/1
6 Incas 62.50% 10/6
7 Mongols 60.00% 3/2
8 Indians 56.52% 13/10
9 Malians 55.56% 10/8
10 Mayans 52.38% 11/10
11 Celts 50.00% 4/4
12 Berbers 41.67% 10/14
13 Magyars 35.00% 7/13
14 Malay 28.57% 6/15
15 Ethiopians 27.78% 5/13
16 Vikings 25.00% 1/3
17 Vietnamese0.00% 0/5
18 Italians 0.00% 0/4
Civilizations with less than 3 games not included.

V. Draft Preference Rating
1 Berbers 2.89
2 Indians 2.93
3 Mayans 4.64
4 Malians 4.69
5 Ethiopians 5.46
6 Burmese 6.08
7 Aztecs 6.27
8 Magyars 7.17
9 Incas 7.28
10 Malay 8.17
11 Huns 8.73
12 Celts 9.66
13 Britons 9.87
14 Viatnamese 10.35
15 Italians 10.39
16 Mongols 10.43
17 Goths 10.71
18 Franks 10.73
19 Vikings 10.74
20 Japanese 10.77
21 Spanish 10.81
22 Koreans 10.9
23 Byzantines 10.97
24 Chinese 11
24 Khmer 11
24 Persians 11
24 Portuguese 11
24 Saracens 11
24 Slavs 11
24 Teutons 11
24 Turks 11
Calculation includes the orders civilisatons were picked (1/10). All cases civs were not picked or were picked 11th/18th they are calculated as 11 -not wanted with 1 being first selection. The lower the number is the higher the prerence for that civization was during the drafts. Bans are not included.

VI. Soccer Table
1 Aztecs 36
2 Huns 36
3 Indians 34
4 Incas 31
5 Britons 31
6 Mayans 31
7 Malians 30
8 Berbers 30
9 Burmese 28
10 Byzantines 27
10 Franks 27
12 Mongols 27
13 Spanish 26
14 Celts 26
15 Koreans 25
16 Chinese 24
16 Goths 24
18 Vikings 22
19 Magyars 22
20 Japanese 21
21 Italians 20
22 Malay 20
23 Vietnamese 18
24 Ethiopians 18
Its done according the head to head results between the civs. Match ups that did not play together are concidered as a draw. Each win no matter the result is awarded 3 pts and each draw is awarded 1 pt.
Tie breaker is goal difference

As stated above You can check the link for much more interesting stats.
Last edited by  Rorarimbo on Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:53 am, edited 19 times in total.
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Re: KotD Clash of the Civilizations

Postby  buddy__1 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:19 pm

whats the difference from 1 and 2
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Re: KotD Clash of the Civilizations

Postby  Rorarimbo » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:23 pm

In a bo5 series that finish 3-0 each player selects 5 civs in their civ pool but at the end play with only 3 of them. The first one shows their intention to use a civ the 2nd that they actually used it. For the overall standings a civ that is used will get 2 pts with a chance for a 3rd if it wins while if it was only selected in the pool but not used it gets only 1 pt.
Last edited by  Rorarimbo on Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: KotD Clash of the Civilizations

Postby  nimanoe » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:30 pm

I think it would be better to either scrap rule 2 or give less points for it, since pro's might save their best civ(s) for last (especially for the person winning).
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Re: KotD Clash of the Civilizations

Postby  swissboyy » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:36 pm

Sounds really cool, looking forward to it!
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Re: KotD Clash of the Civilizations

Postby  Rorarimbo » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:44 pm

Thanks for the suggestion. I think the important part is collecting the data than everyone could reevaluate the formula as he wishes. Having said that I hope we have access to the drafting links as if we dont the whole idea is GG.

For your suggestion Im not too sure how players would decide their strategy. Loosing players will use their strogest civs for sure while winning players may choose differently but here it comes to anticipation and strategy we cannot evaluate really. Than it comes to the player actually trusting the civilisation giving it priority compared the others.
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Re: KotD Clash of the Civilizations

Postby  DraXieN » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:57 pm

Nice idea, but great way to see this would be just the order of the picks. I'd say that civs like malay and berbers will both be likely picked in almost any set, but almost none of the players would pick malay over berber and none of the categories is really reflecting that and in the end you might end up with malay winning a bit more games than berbers (because berb will be used earlier vs stronger civs possibly) and found out that malay is better. The order of the picks is really important and relevant. Maybe like giving first 3 civs picked 2 points, remaining 1 point. Then you likely have to change the banned civ for 3 points overall, because the civ is very likely gonna miss between 1+1 (picked 4th+/played), 2+1 (picked 1st - 3rd/played), 2+1+1 (picked 1st - 3rd/played/won), 1+1+1 (picked 4th+, played, won).

And about the discussion - I doubt players won't play their civs in very similar order they picked those. You want to play strongest civ earlier, weaker civs later. If you're winning 2:0 in BO5, would you save indians for the last game? Only reason is like if you have magyars/huns as very high pick (I'd say players not that comfortable with expansions will have that) and you don't want to use them when its very likely enemy will pick indians, otherwise you want to play civs according to their "power". Especially top 5 - 10 players want to play stronger civ vs stronger civ, weaker vs weaker later on.
TheKkeif » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:07 pm

I'll come on Thursday, what time in Moscow?
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Re: KotD Clash of the Civilizations

Postby  nimanoe » Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:17 pm

  14 Nov 2017, 12:57 GMT » DraXieN wrote:
Nice idea, but great way to see this would be just the order of the picks. I'd say that civs like malay and berbers will both be likely picked in almost any set, but almost none of the players would pick malay over berber and none of the categories is really reflecting that and in the end you might end up with malay winning a bit more games than berbers (because berb will be used earlier vs stronger civs possibly) and found out that malay is better. The order of the picks is really important and relevant. Maybe like giving first 3 civs picked 2 points, remaining 1 point. Then you likely have to change the banned civ for 3 points overall, because the civ is very likely gonna miss between 1+1 (picked 4th+/played), 2+1 (picked 1st - 3rd/played), 2+1+1 (picked 1st - 3rd/played/won), 1+1+1 (picked 4th+, played, won).

And about the discussion - I doubt players won't play their civs in very similar order they picked those. You want to play strongest civ earlier, weaker civs later. If you're winning 2:0 in BO5, would you save indians for the last game? Only reason is like if you have magyars/huns as very high pick (I'd say players not that comfortable with expansions will have that) and you don't want to use them when its very likely enemy will pick indians, otherwise you want to play civs according to their "power". Especially top 5 - 10 players want to play stronger civ vs stronger civ, weaker vs weaker later on.

You make some good points, but I'm still not convinced that a player leading 2-0 will pick his next best civ instead of a slightly weaker one, since most likely the enemy will pick his best civ, so he knows that for the next match-up he will have a civ advantage.

I think another solution might be to look at the order the players picked the civs in the civ selection, since I don't think they won't pick weaker civs first there. You could then apply some scoring system to differentiate between them, for example: first two civs banned get 3 points, first two civs picked get 2.5 points, next two civs picked get 2 points etc.

Also I'm not sure how much weight should be put on the banned civs, since it's global bans, so players might ban some bad civs because they feel they are better with the best civ because they practiced more with them, but that's why it's nice there's different divisions :D
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Re: KotD Clash of the Civilizations

Postby  Rorarimbo » Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:58 pm

The order civs are picked is very important you both are right about that. I think we can see one or few civs that appear in every draft selected or banned. In that case even the most wanted ranking would benefit if we can see what civ was picked first and what was picked last. But at that stage my plan is to keep it as simple as possible. Also I want to see how things work with the draft links. The first week will be crucial if we get them all available. If we have them will be possible for us to make even more breakdowns.

Also I think that even if we make few changes the result will not be changed a lot. This we will see at the end of course but if you use the berbers and malay example and if berbbers are picked earlier and played earlier its likely they are played in more games as some series will finish before the malay get on the pitch :). This would give more points to the berbers for being played and potentionally for winning as there will be more chances to win. Btw thats why I decided not to bother with the W/L ratio just add a point for each win.

As I said I want to keep it relatively simple and allow the results speak for themselves as nimanoe noted the different categories will also be giving information while the final result is matter of a formula between them.
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Re: KotD Clash of the Civilizations

Postby  kw1k000000 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:53 pm

Baring first round there are global civ bans as well. You may want to consider this as first priority civ considering the civs perceived as OP/Top Tier will get banned first.
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