28 Nov 2017, 19:08 GMT » Rey_Fer wrote:Could you explain more extently how does your agorithm work and what data you took into consideration?

The idea is to construct a graph where each civ is a node. The nodes are connected via directed edges. There is one edge between two civs A and B if A lost to B. The number of losses determines the weight of an edge. We normalize the weights such that the sum of weights of all outgoing edges is 1 for each node.

After we initialized the graph, we want to model the probability to reach a node if we randomly walk the graph. We start at a random node and then either visit another random node or visit one of its neighbors. The probability to visit any node randomly is uniformly distributed. The probability to visit one of the neighbors depends on the weight of the edge between them. From that, we can derive the probability to randomly visit a node which is equivalent to the probability that a random civ we lost to is X.

More information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PageRank